Abstract
The policy of Doi Moi, first introduced in 1986, has made a dramatic impact on the reduction of poverty in Viet Nam. From a high of 70% in 1990, the poor, as a percentage of the population, fell to 58% in 1993, 37% in 1998 and around 29% in 2002. Worldwide, the decade has also experienced a surge in hydrometeorological natural disasters (floods, droughts, extreme temperature events and windstorms). In developing countries, the frequency of hydrometeorological natural disasters has increased nearly 3-fold from 55 events per year in the 70s to around 140 events in the 90s. Vietnam has had more than its share of natural disasters. The floods in 1999 in Central Vietnam caused an estimated damage of USD 340 million and had set the development of the region back for many years. Vietnam, with its long coast line and low lying plains where most people live, is particularly exposed to hydrometeorological natural disasters.
This paper will describe the hydrometeorological natural hazards to which Vietnam has been exposed over past decades and the vulnerability of the country to such hazards. We will then briefly explore the question of how such hazards may change in the future, due to global climate change. The paper5 will also describe briefly the policies and activities that the Vietnamese Government has implemented to address hydrometeorological natural hazards.
1. Climate Change – The Global Perspective
The assessment published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001 [IPCC, 2001a] notes it is very likely6 that globally the 1980s was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in the instrumental record (1861 – 2000). The increase in surface temperature over the 20th century for the Northern Hemisphere is likely to have been greater than for any other century in the past 1000 years. The IPCC concluded: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”.
The IPCC also concluded that over the 20th Century it is very likely that:
- global surface temperature increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C;
- the number of hot days increased;
- the number of frosts decreased for nearly all land areas, likely that Northern Hemisphere continental precipitation (rain and snowfall) increased by 5-10%;
- heavy precipitation events increased at mid- and high northern latitudes, and that the frequency and intensity of drought increased in some regions.
The 2001 IPCC assessment provided projections of climate changes expected to occur over the 21st Century, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios (the so-called SRES scenarios, which do not include the effect of any policies specifically directed at decreasing greenhouse gas emissions). These projections are for a rise in globally averaged surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8°C – a rate of global warming very likely to be without precedent over the last 10,000 years. Globally averaged annual precipitation is projected to increase, though at regional scales both increases and decreases are projected of typically 5 to 20%. Global mean sea level is projected to rise by somewhere between 9 and 88 cm by 2100, but with significant regional variations.
Changes are also expected in various climatic extremes through the coming century. For example more hot days and heat waves and fewer frost days and cold waves, are very likely over nearly all land areas. More intense rainfall events are very likely over many areas, with associated increased risk from flood, landslide, avalanche and mudslide. Increased summer drying and risk of drought is likely over most midlatitude continental interiors, and increased variability is likely in precipitation from the Asian summer monsoon. Also, increases are likely over some areas in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, and mean and peak precipitation intensities in these cyclones.
2. Climate Variability and Change over Vietnam
Predictions of climate change at regional or smaller scales are subject to higher uncertainties than projections of globally-averaged changes. Also, the effects of natural climate variations (for example those associated with the El Niño and La Niña) show up more strongly in climate statistics from smaller areas, and make it more difficult to unambiguously detect trends and determine whether these are caused by human activities.
The Working Group II Report of the 2001 IPCC Assessment contains a set of regional chapters (IPCC, 2001b). However the chapter that includes Vietnam covers the whole of Asia within 55 pages, from Siberia down to Indonesia, and from Syria across to Japan. This means there is little specific detail given on Vietnam. Relevant points regarding projections out to 2100 from the Working Group II report and the chapter about regional climate information in the Working Group I report (IPCC, 2001c) includes:
- For South-East Asia as a whole, warming is likely to be less than the global average in June - July – August
- December-January-February precipitation is likely to show little change in South-East Asia.
- Modelling studies of tropical cyclones suggest it is likely that peak wind intensities will increase by 5 to 10% and mean and peak precipitation intensities by 20 to 30% in some regions.
- 23% of the population of Vietnam would be exposed to a sea level rise of 100cm (about twice the “mid-range” IPCC projection for 2100).
climate change in Vietnam is provided below. This is drawn from the work of
organizations such as the Vietnamese Hydrometeorological Service (responsible for
the National Action Plan of Vietnam for climate change issues), the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Centre (ADPC, 2003), the Centre for Environmental Research,
Education and Development in Hanoi, and international collaborators (e.g. Kelly and
Adger, 2000).
2.1 Vietnam’s Present Climate, and Vulnerability to Storms and Floods
The climate of Vietnam is to a large extent controlled by the system of Asian monsoons (Nieuwolt, 1981), with about 70% of the rainfall occurring during the main rainy season from May to September. In addition, Vietnam is typically affected by 4-6 tropical cyclones (typhoons) each year during the rainy season. These occur less frequently in southern areas, than in coastal parts of the Central and Northern regions.
(ADPC, 2003). In coastal areas these cyclones may cause as much as 400 mm of rain in 24 hours, with wind velocities reaching 40 m/s (Nieuwolt, op cit.), and associated “storm surges” in sea level.
The El Niño – Southern Oscillation influences the intensity, frequency and timing of these tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam (Hoang Minh Hien, 2000). The frequency of landfall in La Niña years is higher and the period of activity is later than in El Niño years. However the average and strongest intensity of cyclones is highest in El Niño years.
Vietnam is very vulnerable to storms and floods. According to the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC, 2003), in the ten years from 1990 to 2000 eight thousand people were killed (including fishermen caught at sea during cyclone Linda), 2.3 million tonnes of food were destroyed, 9,000 boats and ships were sunk, and large numbers of houses collapsed and were washed away. A total economic loss of US$2.8 billion was estimated, which is 1.8% to 2.3% of the national GDP.
Losses of human life and property in the 1990s, particularly in the last five years, were more serious than in the previous decade. Particular disasters documented by the ADPC are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Major Storm and Flood – Related Disasters
in Vietnam, 1996 – 2002.
(Information from ADPC, 2003; Duong Lien Chau, 2000)
Floods, storms and associated landslides, erosion and coastal erosion are not the only “hydrometeorological” problems for Vietnam. Various areas, including South Central Region, Highlands, and the coastal areas of Quang Tri, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan Provinces, can suffer from drought, and salinity intrusion is serious in some river deltas. For example ADPC (2003) states the 2002 drought resulted in salt intrusion problems, and in crop losses of around US$250 million.
2.2 Past Climate Changes over Vietnam
Climate records for parts of Vietnam are available dating back as far as the late 19th Century. Analyses of temperatures averaged over the country show there was a warming trend over the twentieth century. The IPCC Third Assessment reports a mean warming of 0.32°C over the last three decades of the 20th Century for Vietnam (Lal et al, 2001) and Schaeffer (2003) calculates a temperature trend of +0.65°C between 1900 and 1998. Variations in rainfall amount have also been observed.
Granich et al (1993) report that for the period from the 1960s to the early 1990s there was an increase in annual rainfall in the north of Vietnam and a decrease in the south.
They also document changes in runoff, including a decrease for the Red River and Mekong Delta during the 1940s and 1950s. They report that the run-off from the Lo River increased from the late 1960s to the early 1990s, and that measurements on the Mekong River at Vientiane also indicate an increase in the 1960s. They say these trends in run-off are due to a combination of human influences and fluctuations in rainfall over the catchment areas. Rainfall trends reported by Schaeffer (2003) indicate an increase over the Mekong Delta region from 1976 – 2000, and a reduction at three stations in the Red River Delta from 1961-2000.
Kelly and Adger (2000) document the reported number of typhoons approaching the coast of Vietnam since 1900. There is great year-to-year variability with numbers ranging from 1 to 12 per year. As already mentioned, the frequency of typhoons is influenced by the state of the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). However Kelly and Adger say there is no firm evidence of any long-term trends in typhoon frequency from observations made up to the present.
The longest and most reliable Vietnamese record of sea level is from Hon Dau in the north, where a positive trend of 0.19 cm per year was recorded in the period 1955–1990 (Granich 1993). Different trends have been observed at Vung Tau in South Vietnam, but there are difficulties due to changes in the siting of this station. ADPC(2003) refers to a UNEP report indicating that sea levels around Vietnam rose 5 centimetres over the 30 years up to 1993.
In summary, there is evidence for positive trends in temperature and sea level for Vietnam, which are in broad agreement with the observed global trends over the past century. Rainfall and the frequency of approach of typhoons exhibit year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. However there is no firm observational evidence to date for a long-term trend in typhoon frequency.
2.3 Projections of Vietnam’s Future Climate
2.3.1 Temperature: ADPC (2003) report climate simulations suggesting that annual mean temperatures will increase by between 0.3°C and 2.5°C by the year 2070, with the largest rises (around 2.5°C) in inland areas, and an increase of around 1.5°C in coastal areas of the Central and Mekong regions. They also note that the number of very hot days is expected to increase.
2.3.2 Rainfall: Projections of future rainfall change for Vietnam are less certain than those for temperature. The ADPC (2003) report suggests that annual average rainfall will not be greatly affected for several more decades, and that changes will not be measurable until around 2050. They report however that areas affected by the Northeast monsoon (including Central Vietnam) may experience increases in annual average rainfall by up to 10% from 2050.
The IPCC Third Assessment Report predicts that the frequency of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase almost everywhere on the globe (IPCC, 2001c). Such an increase in rainfall over short periods could lead to more flash floods and greater runoff (ADPC, 2003).
2.3.3 Sea Level: The IPCC Third Assessment Report projects a global mean sea level rise of between 9 and 88 cm by 2100 for the “SRES” range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with a substantial regional variation. The central value of 48 cm is equivalent to a two-to four times increase over the rate of sea level rise experienced in the 20th Century (IPCC, 2001c). The ADPC report implies that while recent predictions suggest sea level increases could be around 50 cm over the 21st Century, it is prudent to use a scenario of a 1 m sea level rise for examining vulnerability of Vietnamese coastal regions. This is because of the unknowns associated with predicting changed storm patterns and intensities (which could affect storm surge and waves)
2.3.4 Tropical Cyclones: As stated earlier in this paper, modelling studies of tropical cyclones reported by the IPCC suggest it is likely that peak wind intensities will increase by 5 to 10% and mean and peak precipitation intensities by 20 to 30% in tropical cyclones in some regions by 2100. In addition, it has been suggested that in future mean sea surface temperature patterns across the Pacific may become more like those that now occur during El Niño years (IPCC, 2001c). As stated earlier in this paper, the intensity of typhoons that affect Vietnam tends to be stronger in El Niño years. Taking all of this information into account, it is possible that over the coming century Vietnamese coastal areas could experience very significant increases in peak rainfall, wind speed and storm surge associated with tropical cyclones.
(Unfortunately, the research reported in the IPCC 2001 reports has not reached the stage of specifically identifying the “some regions” in which increases in tropical cyclone rain and wind intensities are likely).
3. Vulnerability to Projected Hydrometeorological Climate Changes
Various studies have shown that Vietnam is very vulnerable to increases in sea level.
Potential impacts are not only limited to a narrow coastal zone, but also extend inland up river valleys because of the rise of river beds and flow back-up effects. ADPC (2003) reports that a 1-metre rise in sea level (in the absence of additional protective measures) would subject 17 million people to annual flooding, of whom over 14 million would be in the Mekong Delta provinces.
At present, typhoons account for about 80% of the disasters affecting Vietnam (ADPC, 2003). Thus the possible future increase in tropical cyclone peak rainfall and wind intensities, and the associated storm surge, is also of great concern. This could combine with projected sea level rises, contributing to the potential flooding hazard identified in the previous paragraph.
In addition, the projected increase in the frequency of very heavy rainfall events (not only from tropical cyclones) would give rise to more flash floods and greater runoff.
Thus it appears likely that the serious impacts that Vietnam already experiences from floods and typhoons will become worse under the global climate changes projected for the coming century.
4. The Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS)
CPRGS is a document that elaborates on all general objectives, institutional arrangements, policies and solutions of the 10-year strategy and 5 year plan into detailed specification plans.7 (CPRGS 2002).
The document identified that there were 2.8 million poor households by the beginning of the year 2000 or 17.2% of the total number of households in the whole country.
Table 1 below (reproduced from CPRGS 2002) shows that nearly 70% of the total number of poor households who live in the:
(Source: National Programme on Poverty Reduction
– CPRGS, 2002)
Table 2 – Estimated Poverty Magnitude and Incidence According to the New Poverty Line (2001-2005) Developed by Regional Poverty Reduction Programme in Early 2001
The CPRGS recognised natural calamities as one of the causes of poverty. According to the CPRGS the number of people who need emergency relief every year due to natural calamities ranges from 1 to 1.2 million. The CPRGS also proposed the development of a disaster prevention strategy to minimise losses and stabilise livelihoods and production in disaster-prone areas. This strategy includes:
5. Programmes and Activities
Viet Nam has implemented a number of programmes and undertaken a number of activities related to climate change and natural disasters since Doi Moi.
The key ones are summarised below:
5.1 The National Act Plan for Viet Nam for Climate Changes Issues Co-ordinated by the Hydrometeorological Service (IDPC, 2003).
5.2 World Bank Natural Disaster Mitigation Project
This USD170m project has four components:
The climate of Vietnam is to a large extent controlled by the system of Asian monsoons (Nieuwolt, 1981), with about 70% of the rainfall occurring during the main rainy season from May to September. In addition, Vietnam is typically affected by 4-6 tropical cyclones (typhoons) each year during the rainy season. These occur less frequently in southern areas, than in coastal parts of the Central and Northern regions.
(ADPC, 2003). In coastal areas these cyclones may cause as much as 400 mm of rain in 24 hours, with wind velocities reaching 40 m/s (Nieuwolt, op cit.), and associated “storm surges” in sea level.
The El Niño – Southern Oscillation influences the intensity, frequency and timing of these tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam (Hoang Minh Hien, 2000). The frequency of landfall in La Niña years is higher and the period of activity is later than in El Niño years. However the average and strongest intensity of cyclones is highest in El Niño years.
Vietnam is very vulnerable to storms and floods. According to the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC, 2003), in the ten years from 1990 to 2000 eight thousand people were killed (including fishermen caught at sea during cyclone Linda), 2.3 million tonnes of food were destroyed, 9,000 boats and ships were sunk, and large numbers of houses collapsed and were washed away. A total economic loss of US$2.8 billion was estimated, which is 1.8% to 2.3% of the national GDP.
Losses of human life and property in the 1990s, particularly in the last five years, were more serious than in the previous decade. Particular disasters documented by the ADPC are shown in Table 1.
| Date | Location | Impacts |
| August 1996 | Red River | Large floods plus high tides caused erosion to 120 km of dyke sections and threatened various essential economic activities |
| November 1996 | Coastal Southern Vietnam | Typhoon Linda. Massive losses to life and property. 2,900 people killed or missing, 108,000 houses destroyed, 22,000 ha of rice fields washed away, 2,900 fishing ships sunk, 136,000 ha of shrimp and fish ponds broken |
| November & December 1999 | Central Vietnam | Extremely heavy rainstorms inundated a large area, with massive losses to an estimated amount of USD340 million |
| Three months in 2000 | Mekong Delta | Floods affecting around 4 million people and causing about US$3 billion losses in Mekong Delta. |
| 2001-02 | Mekong Delta | Long lasting inundation affected 2 million people and caused economic loss of around US$100 million in 2001 and US$50 million in 2002 |
(Information from ADPC, 2003; Duong Lien Chau, 2000)
Floods, storms and associated landslides, erosion and coastal erosion are not the only “hydrometeorological” problems for Vietnam. Various areas, including South Central Region, Highlands, and the coastal areas of Quang Tri, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan Provinces, can suffer from drought, and salinity intrusion is serious in some river deltas. For example ADPC (2003) states the 2002 drought resulted in salt intrusion problems, and in crop losses of around US$250 million.
2.2 Past Climate Changes over Vietnam
Climate records for parts of Vietnam are available dating back as far as the late 19th Century. Analyses of temperatures averaged over the country show there was a warming trend over the twentieth century. The IPCC Third Assessment reports a mean warming of 0.32°C over the last three decades of the 20th Century for Vietnam (Lal et al, 2001) and Schaeffer (2003) calculates a temperature trend of +0.65°C between 1900 and 1998. Variations in rainfall amount have also been observed.
Granich et al (1993) report that for the period from the 1960s to the early 1990s there was an increase in annual rainfall in the north of Vietnam and a decrease in the south.
They also document changes in runoff, including a decrease for the Red River and Mekong Delta during the 1940s and 1950s. They report that the run-off from the Lo River increased from the late 1960s to the early 1990s, and that measurements on the Mekong River at Vientiane also indicate an increase in the 1960s. They say these trends in run-off are due to a combination of human influences and fluctuations in rainfall over the catchment areas. Rainfall trends reported by Schaeffer (2003) indicate an increase over the Mekong Delta region from 1976 – 2000, and a reduction at three stations in the Red River Delta from 1961-2000.
Kelly and Adger (2000) document the reported number of typhoons approaching the coast of Vietnam since 1900. There is great year-to-year variability with numbers ranging from 1 to 12 per year. As already mentioned, the frequency of typhoons is influenced by the state of the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). However Kelly and Adger say there is no firm evidence of any long-term trends in typhoon frequency from observations made up to the present.
The longest and most reliable Vietnamese record of sea level is from Hon Dau in the north, where a positive trend of 0.19 cm per year was recorded in the period 1955–1990 (Granich 1993). Different trends have been observed at Vung Tau in South Vietnam, but there are difficulties due to changes in the siting of this station. ADPC(2003) refers to a UNEP report indicating that sea levels around Vietnam rose 5 centimetres over the 30 years up to 1993.
In summary, there is evidence for positive trends in temperature and sea level for Vietnam, which are in broad agreement with the observed global trends over the past century. Rainfall and the frequency of approach of typhoons exhibit year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. However there is no firm observational evidence to date for a long-term trend in typhoon frequency.
2.3 Projections of Vietnam’s Future Climate
2.3.1 Temperature: ADPC (2003) report climate simulations suggesting that annual mean temperatures will increase by between 0.3°C and 2.5°C by the year 2070, with the largest rises (around 2.5°C) in inland areas, and an increase of around 1.5°C in coastal areas of the Central and Mekong regions. They also note that the number of very hot days is expected to increase.
2.3.2 Rainfall: Projections of future rainfall change for Vietnam are less certain than those for temperature. The ADPC (2003) report suggests that annual average rainfall will not be greatly affected for several more decades, and that changes will not be measurable until around 2050. They report however that areas affected by the Northeast monsoon (including Central Vietnam) may experience increases in annual average rainfall by up to 10% from 2050.
The IPCC Third Assessment Report predicts that the frequency of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase almost everywhere on the globe (IPCC, 2001c). Such an increase in rainfall over short periods could lead to more flash floods and greater runoff (ADPC, 2003).
2.3.3 Sea Level: The IPCC Third Assessment Report projects a global mean sea level rise of between 9 and 88 cm by 2100 for the “SRES” range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with a substantial regional variation. The central value of 48 cm is equivalent to a two-to four times increase over the rate of sea level rise experienced in the 20th Century (IPCC, 2001c). The ADPC report implies that while recent predictions suggest sea level increases could be around 50 cm over the 21st Century, it is prudent to use a scenario of a 1 m sea level rise for examining vulnerability of Vietnamese coastal regions. This is because of the unknowns associated with predicting changed storm patterns and intensities (which could affect storm surge and waves)
2.3.4 Tropical Cyclones: As stated earlier in this paper, modelling studies of tropical cyclones reported by the IPCC suggest it is likely that peak wind intensities will increase by 5 to 10% and mean and peak precipitation intensities by 20 to 30% in tropical cyclones in some regions by 2100. In addition, it has been suggested that in future mean sea surface temperature patterns across the Pacific may become more like those that now occur during El Niño years (IPCC, 2001c). As stated earlier in this paper, the intensity of typhoons that affect Vietnam tends to be stronger in El Niño years. Taking all of this information into account, it is possible that over the coming century Vietnamese coastal areas could experience very significant increases in peak rainfall, wind speed and storm surge associated with tropical cyclones.
(Unfortunately, the research reported in the IPCC 2001 reports has not reached the stage of specifically identifying the “some regions” in which increases in tropical cyclone rain and wind intensities are likely).
3. Vulnerability to Projected Hydrometeorological Climate Changes
Various studies have shown that Vietnam is very vulnerable to increases in sea level.
Potential impacts are not only limited to a narrow coastal zone, but also extend inland up river valleys because of the rise of river beds and flow back-up effects. ADPC (2003) reports that a 1-metre rise in sea level (in the absence of additional protective measures) would subject 17 million people to annual flooding, of whom over 14 million would be in the Mekong Delta provinces.
At present, typhoons account for about 80% of the disasters affecting Vietnam (ADPC, 2003). Thus the possible future increase in tropical cyclone peak rainfall and wind intensities, and the associated storm surge, is also of great concern. This could combine with projected sea level rises, contributing to the potential flooding hazard identified in the previous paragraph.
In addition, the projected increase in the frequency of very heavy rainfall events (not only from tropical cyclones) would give rise to more flash floods and greater runoff.
Thus it appears likely that the serious impacts that Vietnam already experiences from floods and typhoons will become worse under the global climate changes projected for the coming century.
4. The Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS)
CPRGS is a document that elaborates on all general objectives, institutional arrangements, policies and solutions of the 10-year strategy and 5 year plan into detailed specification plans.7 (CPRGS 2002).
The document identified that there were 2.8 million poor households by the beginning of the year 2000 or 17.2% of the total number of households in the whole country.
Table 1 below (reproduced from CPRGS 2002) shows that nearly 70% of the total number of poor households who live in the:
- Red River Delta
- North Central Region
- Central Coastal Region
- South East Region
- Mekong River Delta
| Number of poor households (thousands) | As a percentage of total households in region (%) | As a percentage of total poor households nationwide (%) | |
| Total | 2,800 | 17.2 | 100 |
| Northwest region | 146 | 33.9 | 5.2 |
| Northeast region | 511 | 22.3 | 18.2 |
| Red River Delta | 337 | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| North Central region | 554 | 25.6 | 19.8 |
| Central Coastal Region | 389 | 22.4 | 13.9 |
| Central Highlands | 190 | 24.9 | 6.8 |
| Southeast region | 183 | 8.9 | 6.6 |
| Mekong River Delta | 490 | 14.4 | 17.5 |
Table 2 – Estimated Poverty Magnitude and Incidence According to the New Poverty Line (2001-2005) Developed by Regional Poverty Reduction Programme in Early 2001
The CPRGS recognised natural calamities as one of the causes of poverty. According to the CPRGS the number of people who need emergency relief every year due to natural calamities ranges from 1 to 1.2 million. The CPRGS also proposed the development of a disaster prevention strategy to minimise losses and stabilise livelihoods and production in disaster-prone areas. This strategy includes:
- Strengthening the programme on disaster prevention and mitigation.
- Building the system of information collection and hydrometeorology forecasts.
- Raising the awareness and improving people’s capabilities to respond to natural disasters.
- Building infrastructure and safe sites.
- Building up reserves for emergency and training rescue teams.
- Establishing a Recovery from Disaster and Hunger Prevention Fund and Emergency Relief Fund.
5. Programmes and Activities
Viet Nam has implemented a number of programmes and undertaken a number of activities related to climate change and natural disasters since Doi Moi.
The key ones are summarised below:
5.1 The National Act Plan for Viet Nam for Climate Changes Issues Co-ordinated by the Hydrometeorological Service (IDPC, 2003).
5.2 World Bank Natural Disaster Mitigation Project
This USD170m project has four components:
- Prevention and mitigation measures.
- Community-based disaster management.
- Contingency funding for restructure and recovery.
- Institutional strengthening and capacity building.
5.3 CECI Climate Change Project
CECI (Canadian Centre for International Studies and Cooperation) is currently implementing a Capacity Building Project for Adaptation to Climate Change in Thua Thien-Hue Province. This project is funded by the Canada Climate Change Development Fund. The project focuses on “safe village plans” and training of the local communities in disaster management and climate change issues. (NDM Partnership, June 03 Newsletter).
5.4 ADB funding (ADB, 2003).
As at 31 December 2002, about a third (both in dollar value and number of loans) of ADB loans totalling USD661.6m to Viet Nam is in the Agricultural and Natural Resources area. Of this amount, about USD193.8m or about 30% is used in the Irrigation and Flood Protection Rehabilitation and Red River Delta Water Resources and Basin Sector projects.
The figures for 2003 to 2006 for Agricultural and Natural Resources are (in USD million):
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
| Firm Loans | 165 | 177 | 120 | 140 |
| % of total | 49.7% | 28.9% | 28.9% | 21.4% |
Of interest is the Central Region Water Resources Sector Project where a loan of USD170 million is due to come on-stream in 2004. The purpose of the project is to rehabilitate and expand irrigation and flood protection. The project will cover six Central Region provinces: Thanh Hoa, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien, Hue, Quang Ngai and Binh Dinh.
5.5 NDM Partnership – Partnership to Mitigate Natural Disasters in Central Viet Nam.
NDM (Natural Disaster Mitigation) Partnership was formed after the disastrous floods in Central Viet Nam in 1999.
NDM Partnership involves a number of otherwise separate government agencies, nongovernmental organisation and international donors who have agreed to work together to attain a common objective: the mitigation of natural disasters and the subsequent enhancement of sustainable development in Central Viet Nam (NDM Partnership – Final Mission Report 2002).
The project that AC Consulting Group is currently implementing, entitled A Campaign for Public Awareness and Preparedness of Flood Hazards in Thua Thien Hue Province funded by NZAID (New Zealand Agency for International Development), is a direct result of the work identified by NDM Partnership.
6. Conclusions
6.1 Storms, typhoons and floods have caused considerable loss of life and damage to property and agricultural production in Vietnam over the past decade. Projections of human-induced climate changes for Vietnam still contain substantial uncertainties.
Nevertheless, Viet Nam’s economic development over the coming century is likely to suffer substantially increased impacts from natural disasters, if climate changes fall in the middle-to-upper range of IPCC-based projections.
The following are possible results:
- An increase in sea level could lead to the loss of rice growing and habitable land, an increase in salt water intrusion into the paddy fields along the coast, and increased coastal and up-river flooding due to flow back-up effects from sea-level rise and storm surge;
- An increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events and an increased risk of flow backup during floods (due to sea level rise) would put the existing dyke network in the Red River Delta under severe pressure;
- An increase in typhoon peak wind would lead to widespread damage to houses and buildings. A rise in temperature (more hot days) could lead to an increase in consumption of electricity (widespread use of fans, air conditioners).
6.2 There has been a lot of work on global climate change related to Southeast Asia and Viet Nam. Similarly, the Vietnamese Government has allocated much resources to address hydrometeorological natural hazards, as they recognise the impact that these have on the country’s development. However, it is interesting to note that the link between climate change and natural hazards and the importance of climate change do not appear to be sufficiently emphasised. For example, the ADB loans cited above have little, if any, component dealing with climate change.
Similarly, the 9th National Congress Documents of the Communist Party of Viet Nam (2001) that set in place the strategies for Viet Nam development to 2010, made no reference to climate change at all.
By way of closing, we would like to thank the organiser of this very important conference for allowing us to present this paper. We hope that the issues raised here would be of interest to those who are involved in Viet Nam development planning and would encourage them to incorporate global climate change and hydrometeorological natural hazards into their plans if they have not done so already.
References
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