Phạm Phan Long P.E
February 2011
Lancang-Mekong River is the world’s 11th longest river running through China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. In terms of bio-diversity, Lancang-Mekong is second only after the Amazon. For thousands of years, the river has been providing beneficial floods, fish, alluvial soil, fresh water and food for the people living alongside its route and in its basin.
Today, Lancang-Mekong is no longer the same life- supporting river to the people in the region. The entire Lancang-Mekong basin has seen the historic drought in 2010 and downstream people blamed China dams for the problem. Precipitation and water level throughout the basin dropped to 1 in 50 year low level and even lowest historical level in Vietnam. Last year, Mekong fishermen were mostly empty- handed. Each fisherman used to catch 50 kg of fish per day in the past, but last year, the market fish price in Vietnam delta shot up 10 times right at the peak of the flood season when fish should be plentiful and least expensive.
In the second week of February this year, all three monitoring stations in Vietnam recorded water level at zero at Tan Chau, Chau Doc and Vam Nao, and below zero gage at Can Tho. The river stopped flowing at all the above three stations and reversed its direction at Can Tho for several days. Segments of the river have become stagnant ponds and navigation had stopped. The drought of 2010 is about to repeat, local language media are all quiet, the Mekong River Commission and the Mekong governments have nothing to say as the disaster is about to unfold all over again.
The river ecosystem was largely intact despite several decades of wars in the region. But ironically widespread environmental destruction has occurred since peace was restored: exhaustive mining, forest cutting, reckless and haphazard urban development, weak social institutions, poor governance and adverse impacts of climate change have wrecked havoc on the basin's growing and poor population.
China has built many major mainstream dams on the Lancang: the Manwan in 1993, Jinghong in 2001, Dachaoshan 2004 and the giant 15 BCM, 292 m high and 4200 MW Xiaowan dam in 2010. China is in the process of completing the 22 billion cubic meters, 261 m high and 5,500 MW dam- the Nouzhadu- by 2014. Since this program, the Lancang-Mekong has experienced erratic flow fluctuations, increasingly more frequent and extreme droughts and floods and their adverse environmental impacts and social destruction. International scientists and NGO’s have issued stern warnings of an environmental catastrophe of epic scale if nothing is done. They have petitioned China stop completing all the 8 dams in the Upper Mekong Basin (UMB), and the Mekong countries stop building the 12 dams in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB).
In the face of this hydropower madness, Dr. Ngo The Vinh, the author of “Mekong-The Occluding River” has warned that the Tonle Sap Lake, the heart of the basin will “cease to beat”. The fresh water source and food security of 65 million poor Lancang-Mekong people would be destroyed even without the climate change added problems.
The widespread uncoordinated and destructive course of development in the Lancang-Mekong basin is the blatant disregard of the Helsinki Rules (1996), the United Nations Convention (1997) and the Berlin Rules (2004) on international water courses. China has been chiefly responsible for the growing suspicion against them in the last 15 years by withholding the hydrological data, construction plans and reservoirs operation in the Yunnan from the LMB countries. China’s lack of cooperation with the LMB nations, if unabated, will undermine greater regional economic cooperation and will certainly deny China and ASEAN to reach their fullest trade potential.
China and ASEAN cannot afford to let the Lancang-Mekong slowly die this way. No country in the Lancang-Mekong should dam or divert the river flow for its own benefits at the expense of neighboring countries. In 2010, China’s trade exchange with ASEAN has approached 300 billions of U.S dollars, reaching the trade level between China and the European Union. ASEAN trade will soon approach that of the trade between China and the U.S. The urgent call for the EU and the US to reduce the trade deficit with China would only elevate ASEAN as the most important and strategic trade partner with China.
It is completely conceivable that China could reverse the last 15 years of mistrust and build new good will with the LMB if China voluntarily offers to match the LMB’s act of self restraint per the MRC 2010 SEA’s recommendation, and postpones the Nouzhadu completion plan for 10 years. That means about 3 Billion US dollars investment in this project, if that much to date, to sleep and remain unproductive. China would also have to let the $1.5 Billion US dollars in terms of equivalent expected annual hydro-power revenue from Nouzhadu temporarily on hold. All that is a difficult idea to accept for the hydropower developer in Yunnan but when compared to the increasing 300+ Billion US dollars ASEAN’s annual trade with China, the compromise is not unjustifiable.
The Lancang-Mekong is the longest international river that links China to ASEAN. China and ASEAN, as world trading partners must take action now to put a sound foundation for the Lancang- Mekong region. China and ASEAN’s better future cannot be achieved in the absence of the Lancang-Mekong River Initiative and the Lancang Mekong River Treaty. The LMI and Treaty should be signed before 2014 for the China-ASEAN cooperation to be truly meaningful. The year 2014 is when China completes the Nouzhadu dam.
The Dismal State of the Lancang-Mekong Basin
Lancang is in the upper segment (UMB) of the Lancang-Mekong river and the Mekong is the lower segment (LMB)of the Lancang Mekong river. They are two segments of the same international river, therefore belonging to a single ecosystem. Migratory fish and sediment flow freely crossing all political borders made by man for thousands of years, but mainstream hydropower dams constructed since 1995 in China and on the tributaries in Thailand, Laos and Vietnam have prevented water and sediment from moving freely and altered the river natural flood flow and drought cycle, essential for the fish production and farming economy in the LMB.
The failure of the Mekong River Commission (MRC)
The Mekong River Agreement was signed in 1995 and the Mekong River Commission (MRC) was founded by four LMB downstream countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand under the mandate to encourage sustainable development for the region. Since 1995, the Mekong region development has been unsustainable. The basin has suffered eight consecutive drought seasons in 15 years, fish catch has decreased steadily while salt water intrusion reached 70 km deep into land, and in 2009 more than 20,000 hectares of crops throughout the Delta were immersed in saltwater.
Climate change and human interferences are causing the problems much more severe each year. The MRC has not taken any real action to mitigate the impacts or stop the progression of unsustainable development among the LMB members and nothing at all when it comes to China. The MRC’s Drought Management Plan - DMP and Flood Management Plan – FMP remain management plans. No single drought, flood or bank erosion has been mitigated. The subsistence livelihoods, fresh water and food security of the riparian people continue to deteriorate. The MRC, under the direction of the Mekong Ministers limit its scope of research within the political territory of the four member countries as if impacts from China dams do not matter. The MRC was blindfolded and has silenced their scientists and consultants from investigating and reporting their findings about China activates in the UMB.
During the past two decades, in the UMB Yunnan Province, China has built many mainstream dams, the Man Loan(1993), Dachaosan (2001), Jinghong (2004), Xiaowan (2010)and Nouzhadu by 2014. The MRC has not conducted any Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for any of those Yunnan project or actively engaged China to conduct SEA per international standard and practice. MRC never questions China about the complete absence in practice their 15 years of repeated promises that Yunnan reservoirs will help the LMB mitigate their floods and alleviate their droughts.
Save the Lancang Mekong with Lancang-Mekong Initiative
China and LMB countries together should cooperate in their basin development plan to ensure the construction and operation of dams on the Lancang-Mekong will (i) continuously maintain a minimum volume of water discharged every month, especially during the dry season, (ii) maintain the flood flow to fill the Tonal Sap and the Plain of Reeds (Dong Thap Muoi) during the rainy season, (iii) maintain water contamination levels below international standards, (iv) fully disclose hydrological data, reservoirs construction, filling and operation.
Water is the essential and most precious natural resource the riparian people share from an international river and it has been a source of dispute between nations. The world has over 300 international rivers and has over 400 international river treaties. The Europeans had international river agreement since 1815 thanks to their early recognition of the heavy cost of dispute compared to the greater economic benefit and opportunities the cooperation could bring to the entire basin.
The United Nations has passed "The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Water Courses" in 1997, the Helsinki Rules (1996) and Berlin Rules (2004) all have based on the principle "not to cause significant Harm to other riparian’s” and the principle of “reasonable and equitable utilization”.
The next few years will be the last chance for under the Lancang-Mekong LMI to protect the riparian people’s livelihoods and restore the environment. LMI is a great opportunity for China to show leadership and willingness to collaborate with the neighboring countries. If China takes on this task, the potential success of the LMI is very high because China has the ability, means and the prestige, and the Mekong countries urgently need and ready to cooperate with China than with any other world power.
Dr. Tyson Roberts pointed out: “China’s Lancang hydropower plans and Mekong navigation scheme will turn the Mekong into a biologically degraded, badly polluted, dying river like the Yangtze and other big rivers in China. Little of sustainable, productive value will come of this. Long term benefits are doubtful. China will not be able to regulate the Mekong any more than she can regulate the Yangtze, Europe can regulate the Danube, or the USA can regulate the Mississippi. Damming the Lancang for hydropower and turning the Mekong into a navigation highway will force the downstream countries into exhausting and largely futile efforts to protect themselves from the environmental impacts and make up for the damage to their agriculture, fisheries, and way of life.”
The time is now before it is too late, the Lancang-Mekong countries have an opportunity to write a new chapter for their river history in 2011 and tell a better story about themselves than all other international rivers in the world.
Long P. Pham
Viet Ecology Foundation
References
February 2011
Lancang-Mekong River is the world’s 11th longest river running through China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. In terms of bio-diversity, Lancang-Mekong is second only after the Amazon. For thousands of years, the river has been providing beneficial floods, fish, alluvial soil, fresh water and food for the people living alongside its route and in its basin.
Today, Lancang-Mekong is no longer the same life- supporting river to the people in the region. The entire Lancang-Mekong basin has seen the historic drought in 2010 and downstream people blamed China dams for the problem. Precipitation and water level throughout the basin dropped to 1 in 50 year low level and even lowest historical level in Vietnam. Last year, Mekong fishermen were mostly empty- handed. Each fisherman used to catch 50 kg of fish per day in the past, but last year, the market fish price in Vietnam delta shot up 10 times right at the peak of the flood season when fish should be plentiful and least expensive.
In the second week of February this year, all three monitoring stations in Vietnam recorded water level at zero at Tan Chau, Chau Doc and Vam Nao, and below zero gage at Can Tho. The river stopped flowing at all the above three stations and reversed its direction at Can Tho for several days. Segments of the river have become stagnant ponds and navigation had stopped. The drought of 2010 is about to repeat, local language media are all quiet, the Mekong River Commission and the Mekong governments have nothing to say as the disaster is about to unfold all over again.
The river ecosystem was largely intact despite several decades of wars in the region. But ironically widespread environmental destruction has occurred since peace was restored: exhaustive mining, forest cutting, reckless and haphazard urban development, weak social institutions, poor governance and adverse impacts of climate change have wrecked havoc on the basin's growing and poor population.
China has built many major mainstream dams on the Lancang: the Manwan in 1993, Jinghong in 2001, Dachaoshan 2004 and the giant 15 BCM, 292 m high and 4200 MW Xiaowan dam in 2010. China is in the process of completing the 22 billion cubic meters, 261 m high and 5,500 MW dam- the Nouzhadu- by 2014. Since this program, the Lancang-Mekong has experienced erratic flow fluctuations, increasingly more frequent and extreme droughts and floods and their adverse environmental impacts and social destruction. International scientists and NGO’s have issued stern warnings of an environmental catastrophe of epic scale if nothing is done. They have petitioned China stop completing all the 8 dams in the Upper Mekong Basin (UMB), and the Mekong countries stop building the 12 dams in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB).
In the face of this hydropower madness, Dr. Ngo The Vinh, the author of “Mekong-The Occluding River” has warned that the Tonle Sap Lake, the heart of the basin will “cease to beat”. The fresh water source and food security of 65 million poor Lancang-Mekong people would be destroyed even without the climate change added problems.
The widespread uncoordinated and destructive course of development in the Lancang-Mekong basin is the blatant disregard of the Helsinki Rules (1996), the United Nations Convention (1997) and the Berlin Rules (2004) on international water courses. China has been chiefly responsible for the growing suspicion against them in the last 15 years by withholding the hydrological data, construction plans and reservoirs operation in the Yunnan from the LMB countries. China’s lack of cooperation with the LMB nations, if unabated, will undermine greater regional economic cooperation and will certainly deny China and ASEAN to reach their fullest trade potential.
China and ASEAN cannot afford to let the Lancang-Mekong slowly die this way. No country in the Lancang-Mekong should dam or divert the river flow for its own benefits at the expense of neighboring countries. In 2010, China’s trade exchange with ASEAN has approached 300 billions of U.S dollars, reaching the trade level between China and the European Union. ASEAN trade will soon approach that of the trade between China and the U.S. The urgent call for the EU and the US to reduce the trade deficit with China would only elevate ASEAN as the most important and strategic trade partner with China.
It is completely conceivable that China could reverse the last 15 years of mistrust and build new good will with the LMB if China voluntarily offers to match the LMB’s act of self restraint per the MRC 2010 SEA’s recommendation, and postpones the Nouzhadu completion plan for 10 years. That means about 3 Billion US dollars investment in this project, if that much to date, to sleep and remain unproductive. China would also have to let the $1.5 Billion US dollars in terms of equivalent expected annual hydro-power revenue from Nouzhadu temporarily on hold. All that is a difficult idea to accept for the hydropower developer in Yunnan but when compared to the increasing 300+ Billion US dollars ASEAN’s annual trade with China, the compromise is not unjustifiable.
The Lancang-Mekong is the longest international river that links China to ASEAN. China and ASEAN, as world trading partners must take action now to put a sound foundation for the Lancang- Mekong region. China and ASEAN’s better future cannot be achieved in the absence of the Lancang-Mekong River Initiative and the Lancang Mekong River Treaty. The LMI and Treaty should be signed before 2014 for the China-ASEAN cooperation to be truly meaningful. The year 2014 is when China completes the Nouzhadu dam.
The Dismal State of the Lancang-Mekong Basin
Lancang is in the upper segment (UMB) of the Lancang-Mekong river and the Mekong is the lower segment (LMB)of the Lancang Mekong river. They are two segments of the same international river, therefore belonging to a single ecosystem. Migratory fish and sediment flow freely crossing all political borders made by man for thousands of years, but mainstream hydropower dams constructed since 1995 in China and on the tributaries in Thailand, Laos and Vietnam have prevented water and sediment from moving freely and altered the river natural flood flow and drought cycle, essential for the fish production and farming economy in the LMB.
The failure of the Mekong River Commission (MRC)
The Mekong River Agreement was signed in 1995 and the Mekong River Commission (MRC) was founded by four LMB downstream countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand under the mandate to encourage sustainable development for the region. Since 1995, the Mekong region development has been unsustainable. The basin has suffered eight consecutive drought seasons in 15 years, fish catch has decreased steadily while salt water intrusion reached 70 km deep into land, and in 2009 more than 20,000 hectares of crops throughout the Delta were immersed in saltwater.
Climate change and human interferences are causing the problems much more severe each year. The MRC has not taken any real action to mitigate the impacts or stop the progression of unsustainable development among the LMB members and nothing at all when it comes to China. The MRC’s Drought Management Plan - DMP and Flood Management Plan – FMP remain management plans. No single drought, flood or bank erosion has been mitigated. The subsistence livelihoods, fresh water and food security of the riparian people continue to deteriorate. The MRC, under the direction of the Mekong Ministers limit its scope of research within the political territory of the four member countries as if impacts from China dams do not matter. The MRC was blindfolded and has silenced their scientists and consultants from investigating and reporting their findings about China activates in the UMB.
During the past two decades, in the UMB Yunnan Province, China has built many mainstream dams, the Man Loan(1993), Dachaosan (2001), Jinghong (2004), Xiaowan (2010)and Nouzhadu by 2014. The MRC has not conducted any Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for any of those Yunnan project or actively engaged China to conduct SEA per international standard and practice. MRC never questions China about the complete absence in practice their 15 years of repeated promises that Yunnan reservoirs will help the LMB mitigate their floods and alleviate their droughts.
Save the Lancang Mekong with Lancang-Mekong Initiative
China and LMB countries together should cooperate in their basin development plan to ensure the construction and operation of dams on the Lancang-Mekong will (i) continuously maintain a minimum volume of water discharged every month, especially during the dry season, (ii) maintain the flood flow to fill the Tonal Sap and the Plain of Reeds (Dong Thap Muoi) during the rainy season, (iii) maintain water contamination levels below international standards, (iv) fully disclose hydrological data, reservoirs construction, filling and operation.
Water is the essential and most precious natural resource the riparian people share from an international river and it has been a source of dispute between nations. The world has over 300 international rivers and has over 400 international river treaties. The Europeans had international river agreement since 1815 thanks to their early recognition of the heavy cost of dispute compared to the greater economic benefit and opportunities the cooperation could bring to the entire basin.
The United Nations has passed "The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Water Courses" in 1997, the Helsinki Rules (1996) and Berlin Rules (2004) all have based on the principle "not to cause significant Harm to other riparian’s” and the principle of “reasonable and equitable utilization”.
The next few years will be the last chance for under the Lancang-Mekong LMI to protect the riparian people’s livelihoods and restore the environment. LMI is a great opportunity for China to show leadership and willingness to collaborate with the neighboring countries. If China takes on this task, the potential success of the LMI is very high because China has the ability, means and the prestige, and the Mekong countries urgently need and ready to cooperate with China than with any other world power.
Dr. Tyson Roberts pointed out: “China’s Lancang hydropower plans and Mekong navigation scheme will turn the Mekong into a biologically degraded, badly polluted, dying river like the Yangtze and other big rivers in China. Little of sustainable, productive value will come of this. Long term benefits are doubtful. China will not be able to regulate the Mekong any more than she can regulate the Yangtze, Europe can regulate the Danube, or the USA can regulate the Mississippi. Damming the Lancang for hydropower and turning the Mekong into a navigation highway will force the downstream countries into exhausting and largely futile efforts to protect themselves from the environmental impacts and make up for the damage to their agriculture, fisheries, and way of life.”
The time is now before it is too late, the Lancang-Mekong countries have an opportunity to write a new chapter for their river history in 2011 and tell a better story about themselves than all other international rivers in the world.
Long P. Pham
Viet Ecology Foundation
References
- http://www.eai.nus.edu.sg/BB519.pdf
- http://www.mrcmekong.org/ish/SEA/SEA-Main-Final-Report.pdf
- http://the-diplomat.com/2010/10/22/the-battle-over-the-mekong/
- http://deltas.usgs.gov/abstracts2009Summit/Daming%20He.pdf
- http://www.mrcmekong.org/download/programmes/ep/MRC-IM-No3-Modelling-the-flow-of-the-Mekong.pdf
- http://www.irtces.org/isi/isi_document/ICEC_ChangeSedimentFluxChina_LIU.pdf
- http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/2/2287/2005/hessd-2-2287-2005-print.pdf
- http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2010/09/147674.htm
- http://www.vietecology.org/Article.aspx/Article/59
- http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50931
- http://mouthtosource.org/rivers/mekong/2010/03/17/low-river-levels-caused-by-extreme-low-rainfall/
- http://www.mrcmekong.org/download/free_download/CustMgmtGuidelines.pdf
- http://groups.google.com/group/lancang-mekong/browse_thread/thread/c555150949af1951
- http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/weekly_report/2010/2010-10-18%20Weekly%20Flood%20Situation%20Report.pdf
- http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/AHNIP/Reports_AHNIP/CSA_AHNIP.html
- http://www.bjwconsult.com/THEHELSINKIRULES.pdf
- http://www.cawater-info.net/library/eng/l/berlin_rules.pdf
- http://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/bibliography/articles/general/Salman-BerlinRules.pdf
- http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/publications/atlas/atlas_html/interagree.html
- http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4093-Cascade-effect
Telemetry Data at Can Tho
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Telemetry Data at Chau Doc
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Telemetry Data at Tan Chau
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Telemetry Data at Vam Nao
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
| Time of Report | 14/02/2011 13:41 GMT+07:00 |
| Datum level (m msl) | N/A |
| Flood level (m) | N/A |
| Alarm level (m) | N/A |
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Telemetry Data at Chau Doc
| Time of Report | 14/02/2011 13:41 GMT+07:00 | ||
| Datum level (m msl) | 0.00 | ||
| Flood level (m) | 3.5 | ||
| Alarm level (m) | 2.5 |
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Telemetry Data at Tan Chau
| Time of Report | 14/02/2011 13:41 GMT+07:00 |
| Datum level (m msl) | 0.00 |
| Flood level (m) | 4.2 |
| Alarm level (m) | 3.0 |
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Water Level (metres above zero gauge)
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
Telemetry Data at Vam Nao
| Time of Report | 14/02/2011 13:41 GMT+07:00 |
| Datum level (m msl) | N/A |
| Flood level (m) | N/A |
| Alarm level (m) | N/A |
Rated Discharge (cumecs)
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